Fun With Numbers -- Ladies Event

Though the results of the Men's Free Skate has proven controversial, the judges in that event were nonetheless in fairly good agreement.  Surprisingly, the variety of opinion among the judges was actually greater in the Ladies Free Skate than in the Men's.

Rachael Flatt was the favorite for seven of the nine judges, though for two of those by less than one point.  Ashley Wagner's scores show a large span of opinions.  In total score, she was marked first through third by two or more judges.  In jumps alone, eight of the nine judges agreed she was second in that skill, but in all other skills the judges' marks are all over the place.  For spins the judges had her second through seventh, sequences first through twelfth, skating first through fifth, and presentation first through sixth!  Mirai Nagasu's marks also show an interesting variety of opinion both overall, and for individual skills.

[See the article for the Men's event for a description of how the various skills are tabulated.]

POINT TOTALS AND PLACES FOR EACH JUDGE
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3
  130.51 118.51 124.21 127.01 130.21 124.31 127.51 130.21 116.61
Ashley Wagner 3 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 2
  121.70 117.60 124.80 120.80 118.10 128.10 127.40 126.20 123.60
Mirai Nagasu 2 4 3 4 2 4 4 3 1
  123.05 110.15 119.15 120.35 122.25 121.95 111.95 124.45 124.05
Caroline Zhang 4 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 4
  118.43 115.73 113.63 126.83 116.73 125.93 124.13 121.33 109.93
Beatrisa Liang 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
  117.31 98.91 107.71 116.91 113.21 109.11 106.21 110.91 107.01
Katrina Hacker 9 8 7 8 7 6 7 6 6
  97.76 93.46 98.16 100.46 99.36 107.26 101.16 107.26 105.76
Kimberly Meissner 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 7 7
  106.03 95.23 98.63 101.53 95.53 99.73 102.43 101.63 101.23
Melissa Bulanhagui 11 7 8 9 6 8 8 9 9
  88.65 94.55 97.25 98.25 99.65 98.15 98.15 95.65 95.05
Alissa Czisny 8 10 9 6 9 9 9 8 8
  97.83 92.23 93.43 103.13 88.33 97.63 96.73 98.13 95.53
Becky Bereswill 7 9 11 10 12 10 10 10 10
  100.34 93.44 88.44 92.74 86.34 86.94 88.34 93.94 94.54

Places for Jumps
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
  52.01 48.01 49.01 48.01 52.01 50.01 50.01 52.01 46.01
Ashley Wagner 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1
  47.40 45.40 47.40 42.40 45.40 48.40 48.40 48.40 48.40
Mirai Nagasu 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
  41.75 37.75 36.75 39.75 40.75 40.75 37.75 39.75 41.75
Caroline Zhang 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
  39.83 44.03 44.03 46.03 44.03 46.03 48.03 41.23 42.43
Beatrisa Liang 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
  36.71 33.11 35.21 35.01 36.11 33.61 33.01 34.11 33.11
Katrina Hacker 9 9 7 7 8 7 8 7 8
  29.76 28.76 31.76 31.76 28.76 31.76 29.76 33.76 30.76
Kimberly Meissner 7 11 8 11 7 8 7 10 10
  32.83 27.83 30.83 28.83 28.83 30.83 29.83 30.83 28.83
Melissa Bulanhagui 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
  31.15 35.75 35.75 35.75 36.75 35.75 35.75 36.75 35.75
Alissa Czisny 14 14 16 16 17 16 13 14 16
  22.83 21.33 20.53 20.23 18.03 21.33 22.23 23.43 20.53
Becky Bereswill 6 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 6
  34.14 32.24 30.24 31.14 27.14 30.14 29.14 31.24 33.14

Places for Spins
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 8 7 8 10 4 8 8 10 8
  12.30 11.80 11.80 11.80 13.30 11.80 12.30 12.30 11.50
Ashley Wagner 7 4 5 5 7 4 2 4 3
  12.60 13.10 13.60 14.10 12.60 14.10 13.60 14.10 13.60
Mirai Nagasu 4 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 2
  14.10 14.60 15.60 14.60 14.60 15.60 13.60 14.60 14.60
Caroline Zhang 2 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 5
  14.60 13.60 14.10 15.10 15.10 14.60 14.10 14.60 13.10
Beatrisa Liang 3 7 6 4 4 6 6 5 4
  14.30 11.80 13.30 14.30 13.30 13.30 12.80 13.80 13.30
Katrina Hacker 6 5 3 5 6 4 5 6 5
  12.80 12.60 14.10 14.10 13.10 14.10 13.10 13.60 13.10
Kimberly Meissner 5 10 8 7 8 7 6 8 7
  13.30 11.30 11.80 12.30 12.30 12.30 12.80 12.80 11.80
Melissa Bulanhagui 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 13 15
  8.50 9.10 9.30 9.10 8.80 9.40 9.40 10.40 8.80
Alissa Czisny 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 1
  15.10 13.60 14.60 16.10 14.10 15.10 13.60 15.10 15.10
Becky Bereswill 10 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13
  10.00 9.80 10.00 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 10.30 10.00

Places for Sequences
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 7 5 7 5 3 13 2 12 6
  7.00 7.50 7.00 8.00 8.50 6.50 8.00 6.30 7.50
Ashley Wagner 10 5 7 7 12 5 1 10 4
  6.50 7.50 7.00 7.50 6.50 8.00 9.00 6.50 8.00
Mirai Nagasu 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1
  9.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.00 8.00 9.50 9.50
Caroline Zhang 6 4 11 6 7 7 10 9 10
  7.20 7.70 6.70 7.70 7.20 7.70 7.20 6.70 7.20
Beatrisa Liang 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 2
  9.50 8.00 8.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.00
Katrina Hacker 8 12 5 8 6 1 8 12 6
  6.80 6.50 7.50 7.00 7.50 9.00 7.50 6.30 7.50
Kimberly Meissner 3 5 7 8 8 5 2 8 4
  8.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 8.00
Melissa Bulanhagui 13 12 7 8 12 15 11 10 12
  5.80 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.50 5.80 7.00 6.50 6.50
Alissa Czisny 3 5 2 2 4 1 8 2 3
  8.50 7.50 8.50 9.00 8.00 9.00 7.50 9.00 8.50
Becky Bereswill 12 14 14 15 15 14 14 6 15
  6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 7.20 6.20

Places for Skating Skills and Transitions
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 1 4 2 1 4 4 1 3 5
  23.60 19.60 22.40 23.20 21.60 22.00 22.40 22.80 20.80
Ashley Wagner 5 3 3 5 2 1 2 7 2
  22.00 20.00 21.60 22.40 22.00 22.80 22.00 20.80 21.60
Mirai Nagasu 1 5 1 3 1 1 6 1 1
  23.60 19.20 23.20 22.80 23.60 22.80 20.80 24.40 23.20
Caroline Zhang 6 5 7 6 6 1 3 3 8
  21.60 19.20 18.40 22.40 19.20 22.80 21.60 22.80 18.00
Beatrisa Liang 3 9 6 3 2 8 7 7 4
  22.40 17.20 20.40 22.80 22.00 20.80 20.40 20.80 21.20
Katrina Hacker 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 5 6
  20.80 18.00 18.00 18.80 18.80 20.80 19.60 21.20 20.40
Kimberly Meissner 3 1 4 6 5 5 3 2 2
  22.40 21.20 21.20 22.40 21.20 21.20 21.60 23.20 21.60
Melissa Bulanhagui 15 10 8 9 10 9 9 16 11
  16.80 16.80 18.00 18.40 18.00 19.20 18.00 15.60 17.20
Alissa Czisny 6 2 5 1 6 5 3 5 6
  21.60 20.40 20.80 23.20 19.20 21.20 21.60 21.20 20.40
Becky Bereswill 9 7 16 10 13 11 13 12 8
  19.60 18.00 16.40 18.40 17.20 16.40 17.20 16.80 18.00

Places for Presentation
  J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 J9
Rachael Flatt 1 1 3 1 1 4 1 2 6
  35.60 31.60 34.00 36.00 34.80 34.00 34.80 36.80 30.80
Ashley Wagner 5 1 2 6 4 2 2 3 4
  33.20 31.60 35.20 34.40 31.60 34.80 34.40 36.40 32.00
Mirai Nagasu 1 1 1 4 2 1 5 1 1
  35.60 31.60 35.60 35.20 34.80 34.80 32.80 37.20 36.00
Caroline Zhang 3 4 6 2 5 2 3 4 8
  35.20 31.20 30.40 35.60 31.20 34.80 33.20 36.00 29.20
Beatrisa Liang 4 7 5 5 3 5 7 5 7
  34.40 28.80 30.80 34.80 32.80 32.40 32.00 33.20 30.40
Katrina Hacker 10 8 10 8 5 7 8 6 2
  27.60 27.60 26.80 28.80 31.20 31.60 31.20 32.40 34.00
Kimberly Meissner 6 5 4 7 9 8 3 7 2
  32.00 30.40 30.80 34.00 29.20 30.40 33.20 30.80 34.00
Melissa Bulanhagui 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 12 11
  26.40 26.40 27.20 28.00 29.60 28.00 28.00 26.40 26.80
Alissa Czisny 7 5 7 2 7 6 5 8 4
  30.80 30.40 30.00 35.60 30.00 32.00 32.80 30.40 32.00
Becky Bereswill 8 9 12 10 12 11 14 9 10
  30.40 27.20 25.60 27.20 26.00 24.40 26.00 28.40 27.20

Rachael Flatt won the Free Skate on the strength of her jumps and Program Component scores that were second best, but still only a few points behind Mirai Nagasu.  Her spin and sequence points, however, were mediocre -- not enough to cost her first place in the Free Skate, but enough to cost her the title.  Overall Flatt trailed Nagasu for the title by 1.68 points.  In spins she was more than 2.5 points behind Czisny and Nagasu, and in sequences she was more than 1.5 points behind Nagasu.

In the various skills, Nagasu scored best in Sequences, Skating and Presentation, and scored second best in spins.  In jumps, however, she was a little more than 10 points behind Flatt.  Try as she might in the other skills, this is just too much of a jump deficit for most skaters to overcome.

Despite her edge calls, Caroline Zhang still scored third best in jumps.  Her two weakest skills were Sequences and Skating.  Since good scores in sequences generally require the skater have good skating skills, it is not surprising that these two sets of marks would go down together.

When looking at the five skill sets, the scores for Kimmie Meissner show her decline has been across the board.  She scored ninth best in jumps, nearly 20 points behind Flatt.  Spins, Sequences and Presentation were also down.  Only in Skating Skills and Transitions did she stay close to the leaders.

ORDER OF FINISH BASED ON POINTS AND SUB-POINTS

  All Skills Jumps Spins Sequences Skating Presentation
Rachael Flatt 1 1 8 8 2 2
  125.45 49.67 12.09 7.37 22.05 34.27
Ashley Wagner 2 2 4 7 4 3
  123.14 46.84 13.48 7.39 21.70 33.73
Mirai Nagasu 3 4 2 1 1 1
  119.72 39.64 14.66 8.95 22.62 34.85
Caroline Zhang 4 3 3 10 7 4
  119.19 43.97 14.31 7.26 20.67 32.98
Beatrisa Liang 5 6 6 2 6 5
  109.71 34.44 13.36 8.84 20.90 32.18
Katrina Hacker 6 8 5 9 8 8
  101.22 30.77 13.41 7.29 19.60 30.14
Kimberly Meissner 7 9 7 5 3 6
  100.21 29.94 12.30 7.56 21.78 31.65
Melissa Bulanhagui 8 5 15 13 9 9
  96.15 35.45 9.19 6.51 17.57 27.42
Alissa Czisny 9 16 1 3 5 7
  95.89 21.17 14.71 8.39 21.07 31.55
Becky Bereswill 10 7 13 14 10 10
  91.67 30.95 9.93 6.31 17.55 26.93
Tenile Victorsen 11 11 12 6 11 11
  87.47 27.78 9.96 7.50 17.52 26.70
Chrissy Hughes 12 12 16 4 15 14
  83.19 26.32 8.94 7.78 15.95 25.20
Danielle Kahle 13 15 9 15 12 12
  82.00 21.56 11.90 5.90 17.50 26.14
Megan Williams-Stewart 14 10 20 17 13 15
  81.04 28.56 7.43 5.40 16.40 24.26
Molly Oberstar 15 18 11 11 14 13
  75.37 18.48 10.39 6.75 16.14 25.60
Karen Zhou 16 13 14 12 19 18
  73.38 22.49 9.65 6.55 14.18 21.50
Megan Hyatt 17 14 17 19 16 16
  72.86 21.86 8.63 4.44 15.73 23.20
Stephanie Roth 18 17 18 20 18 20
  66.66 19.62 7.99 4.00 14.58 20.48
Laney Diggs 19 19 10 18 20 19
  65.65 16.41 11.57 4.89 13.73 21.06
Angie Lien 20 19 19 16 17 17
  64.51 16.41 7.93 5.86 15.65 22.67

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Copyright 2008 by George S. Rossano